Abstract

The traditional linear regression model of mass appraisal is increasingly unable to satisfy the standard of mass appraisal with large data volumes, complex housing characteristics and high accuracy requirements. Therefore, it is essential to utilize the inherent spatial-temporal characteristics of properties to build a more effective and accurate model. In this research, we take Beijing’s core area, a typical urban center, as the study area of modeling for the first time. Thousands of real transaction data sets with a time span of 2014, 2016 and 2018 are conducted at the community level (community annual average price). Three different models, including multiple regression analysis (MRA) with ordinary least squares (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), are adopted for comparative analysis. The result indicates that the GTWR model, with an adjusted R2 of 0.8192, performs better in the mass appraisal modeling of real estate. The comparison of different models provides a useful benchmark for policy makers regarding the mass appraisal process of urban centers. The finding also highlights the spatial characteristics of price-related parameters in high-density residential areas, providing an efficient evaluation approach for planning, land management, taxation, insurance, finance and other related fields.

Highlights

  • The urban center is the core area of an urban structure

  • The real estate market in central areas mainly consists of second-hand housing transactions

  • Referring to the experience of developed countries, real estate tax is often based on the value of the houses [1]

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Summary

Introduction

The urban center is the core area of an urban structure. The high density of urban centers and the central position of urban functions make it different from the cities’ other areas in many aspects, i.e., high population density, traffic congestion and high land development intensity. The central area of a city often does not have new residential land for development to build first-hand real estate for housing market. The real estate market in central areas mainly consists of second-hand housing transactions. For a city’s real estate market, the government can determine and revise policies regarding planning, land, finance, tax, price and other aspects. Referring to the experience of developed countries, real estate tax is often based on the value of the houses [1]

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