Markov processes in modeling land use and land cover change in Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Based on the transition probability calculated by the transition rate of land use and land cover change (LUCC) area, the simulated LUCC area almost equal to the actual by Markov chain model in Tibetan Plateau. It shows that Markov chain model can be used to simulate the land use and land cover change of Tibetan Plateau. From the results of simulated LUCC of Tibetan Plateau in the next 20 to 40 years and 70 to 90 years, the change area of different land use type will be very obvious. Rapid urban development and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth, then rural residential land and industrial and mining land use will decrease. Markov chain model can be used to analyze land use and land cover and simulate land use and land cover change area. According with the simulated results in the future, different land cover will be altered. It will be a powerful tool for land use plan, land use management.