Markov chain modelling of wind speed in middle belt of Nigeria

Abstract

A Markov Chain Model was used to determine the transition probabilities of wind speed as well as the mean first return time for each state within North Central of Nigeria. A daily wind speed data for the period of 36years (1984-2020) was used. The work identified 3 wind speed states (calm air (CA), light air (LA) & light breeze (LB)). It was also observed that the probability of transition from CA to LB directly is not possible whereas CA to LA in both ways are possible. The most common wind speed within the zone is the LA which occur every 2days on the average. The CA is high in Kwara State (21days) and Niger State is the least (8days). The result of the LB in Kogi State is 5369days for the wind speed to return back to LB but it takes 19days for such wind speed to return back in Plateau State. The implication of this wind speed state to health is that any airborne disease that spread with LB should not be of major concern to middle belt particularly Kogi State but any spread with LA should be given utmost priority because it occurs every 2days on the average.