Abstract
LiFePhO4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, with their advantages compared to common current motorcycle batteries, are considered as an alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. The huge demand for motorcycles along with their batteries in Indonesia also make them an interesting product for business. To assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) indicators were conducted in this study. Calculations using Markov chain method show that lithium iron phosphate batteries tend to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also finds that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions: first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for lithium iron phosphate batteries, especially in Indonesia.
Highlights
There is an increasing trend of motorcycle sales in Indonesia in recent years
This study provides techno-economic analysis for the investment of lithium iron phosphate motorcycle batteries as the technology of lithium iron phosphate battery batteries is still developing and business aspect needs to be assessed
The analysis of market opportunity began with two processes: the first survey that was aimed to discover consumer preference in choosing battery and the second survey that was aimed to predict consumer interest in using lithium battery
Summary
There is an increasing trend of motorcycle sales in Indonesia in recent years. According to Indonesia Statistics Agency [1], 61 million motorcycles were sold nationally in 2010, which increased to 92 million in 2014, resulting in 52% growth in the last five years. Demand of motor accumulators or batteries is increasing. Two types of battery are commonly found in Indonesia: dry cell batteries and wet cell batteries. The dry cell holds 80% of market share and the rest is wet cell [2]. The demand volume for dry cell motorcycle batteries was 48 million units in 2010, growing to 74 million in 2014 [1]. Dry cell motorcycle battery business is huge in Indonesian market, especially lithium iron phosphate battery [4]. As of 2016, there is not yet a manufacturer in Indonesia, which led to motorcycle battery technology—Lithium
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