Markov chain analysis to identify the market share prediction of new technology: A case study of electric conversion motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Motorcycles purchase rates in Indonesia reached 113,030,793 units in 2017 with annual average increase of 4%. The technology used is the internal combustion engine (ICE) or fuel combustion. This technology is related with energy crisis and global warming by motorcycles as the biggest contributions for greenhouse gas emission. Electric conversion motorcycle can be solution to overcome the problems by substitute fuel with Lithium-Ion battery kit as the energy source. IThis has a business opportunity in the future because it can solve problem that threaten the world: energy crisis and global warming. To predict the market share for a technology, market share needs to be estimated. Market share prediction were examined using population in Surakarta. Based on the result, this study of 100 individuals has identified potential categories of electric conversion motorcycle. The predicted of market share is 36% in first period, 44,24% in second period, and 46,51% in third period. Third period is the equilibrium condition that demands of the electric motorcycle will be stable. Electric conversion motorcycle has a positive respons from people in Surakarta.