Marketing logistics support for the export of cereals from Ukraine under the conditions of marital state

Abstract

The research paper aims to improve the marketing logistics processes to support grain export supplies from Ukraine during martial law conditions. Research methodology. The research was based on the dialectical method of cognition, fundamental economic theory, logistics, and marketing. It also drew from scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists on the issues of marketing logistics and the formation of supply chains for agri-food products. The research utilized a wide range of general and specialized methods, including in-depth monographic study of assigned tasks, theoretical generalization and comparison, historical-retrospective analysis of the development of marketing, sales, and logistics management, functional-cost and statistical analysis, heuristic assessment and analysis of logistics processes in the agricultural sector, correlation-regression analysis, and graphic representation of research results and economic trends. Research results. The critical aspects of the influence of Russian military aggression on essential logistics functions and costs for logistical support of export supplies of corn from Ukraine, as well as its main competitors, are determined based on the application of the Aglink-Cosimo economic-mathematical recursive-dynamic partial equilibrium model. Elements of scientific novelty. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, we developed several scenarios to predict the impact on the harvest and export levels of all crops in Ukraine and the level of wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/23 MR and world wheat prices. If Ukraine loses its export opportunities completely, it will result in a 19% increase in the world price of wheat. Practical relevance. The practical significance of the results is the development of science-based proposals for improving marketing logistics support for agricultural enterprises specializing in corn-producing for grain. Keywords: marketing logistics, export, logistics supply chains, grain crops, corn, logistics costs, alternative logistics routes, Grain Corridor, Aglink-Cosimo economic-mathematical model.