Abstract
The enforcement of peer-to-peer (P2P) registration requirements in mid-2018 triggered a P2P market meltdown, highlighting the inherent challenge faced by Chinese market participants in distinguishing between genuine and fraudulent fintech firms. The difference-in-difference results suggest that the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) perception can effectively halve investor outflows and borrower outflows during periods of uncertainty. Dynamic analysis further validates the parallel-trend assumption and underscores the persistent influence of TBTF perception. Moreover, the empirical findings suggest that, in the face of a market downturn, fintech market participants become unresponsive to all other certification mechanisms, including venture capital participation, custodian banks, and third-party guarantees.
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