Market timing and pseudo market timing: an empirical examination of IPOs in India

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of market timing and pseudo market timing on equity issuance decisions of IPOs in an emerging economy – India. Indian new issues market provides a perfect setting to test market timing against pseudo market timing due to two reasons. First, the US literature shows that most underpriced IPOs are highly overvalued and in India, the authors have the evidence of underpricing of IPOs. But whether Indian IPOs are overvalued or not it is yet to be tested. Second, majority of IPOs were issued in India only after the 1991 economic reforms which may signal the evidence for pseudo market timing hypothesis.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use direct test to examine the impact of market timing and pseudo market timing variables on the IPO activity. The direct tests of market timing and pseudo market timing hypotheses are based on the positive relation of market timing variables and market conditions variables with IPO activity. The authors examine the long-run performance of IPOs by using the calendar-time regression approach to test market timing against pseudo market timing. This serves as indirect test of market timing and pseudo market timing. Evidence of market timing using indirect test shows that there is a decline in the long-run stock performance of IPOs.FindingsThe results show that in India, firms issue equity not just due to market conditions but they also issue equity in order to time the market. The results of market timing are also supported by the calendar-time approach results. However, the authors find that the evidence of market timing is stronger for hot issue markets as compared to cold issue markets.Originality/valueThis is the first study to comprehensively examine market timing and pseudo market timing using direct and indirect tests for an emerging market context.