Abstract
In order to fulfill the commitments of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, the Colombian transportation system has become a central issue in the public policy design. This article presents a system dynamics oriented model to simulate the adoption of new vehicle technologies in the Colombian freight transportation. Additionally, a PESTLE analysis is used to describe the interaction between political, legal, economic, technological, social and environmental variables that influence the transport system. Five different scenarios are simulated to understand the relevance and impact of the technological and political factors on the selection probability of each technology. In a favorable political and technological scenario one of the most relevant results obtained is the percentage share: values between 16% and 18% for electric and hybrid technologies by 2032. These results will help to formulate new strategies related to the replacement of vehicle technologies.
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