Market adoption simulation of electric vehicle based on social network model considering nudge policies

Abstract

The promotion of electric vehicle (EV) is crucial for China to achieve the carbon neutrality by 2060. However, apart from economic incentives, the large-scale market penetration of EV is still hindered by consumer behavior factors like preference and attitude, which were rarely analyzed in the existing studies. Therefore, in the present study, the market adoption of EV among the consumers with bounded rationality and attitude-behavior gap in different policy scenarios was studied by using a developed social network model, and the data mining methods were applied to collect and analyze consumers’ online behavior data. Moreover, the key nudge policies were proposed and simulated by using the developed model, and the obtained results show that: i) The nudge policy of information propaganda promotion has a considerable promotion effect on EV adoption, and combining nudge polices and charging infrastructure has much more promotion effects comparing with charging subsidy; ii) The consumers’ over communication will have negative effects on the adoption of EV, therefore nudge polices are necessary to control or reduce the over-communication properly. iii) The purchase subsidy is obviously important for promoting EV adoption at present, thus its phaseout should be carried out step by step.