Abstract
We surveyed quite a number of papers (~60), where one third of them belonged to maritime economic dynamic systems, meaning multi variable models. The emphasis we placed was on works published the last 11 years or so (2006-2016). In addition, we provided a general picture of maritime economic research from 1973 to 2013. The survey had to be combined with advances in General Econometrics. As a result and despite long delays maritime economists (Glen et al. [1] applied the VAR—vector autoregressive (1987-1988) model due to Sims [2]. But this was not the only one as co-integration [3] [4] dominated the scene given that SEM-simultaneous equations model had defects in relation to exogenous variables. Moreover, VEC—the vector error correction model and a representation of VAR appeared based on Granger’s representation theorem. The models for 2006-2016 were 36 including 5 for maritime futures after 2003 and 7 on forecasting (2003-2016). A description of a shipping cycle has been given with the presence of time.
Highlights
A “survey”1 is useful, we believe, because it traces the retrospective evolution of a science2
We surveyed quite a number of papers (~60), where one third of them belonged to maritime economic dynamic systems, meaning multi variable models
“Maritime logistics-ML emerged as a 3rd branch of maritime economics judged by the number of papers published; some [15] argue wrongly that ML is a discipline
Summary
A “survey” is useful, we believe, because it traces the retrospective evolution of a science. Only 11% of papers were in this, or near this, area This means 108 papers out of a total of 984, which have published in Maritime Policy and Management (MP&M thereafter) between 1973 and 20128,9. Judging the “openness” of the industry from the number of interviews carried-out as a method of research in producing published papers, interviewing has been applied to only ~3% of papers (~29) over 40 years10...!. The IAME 2014 conference provided a list of the future research (conferences had to present what will be published tomorrow); 150 papers were accepted: “Shipping”13: 37%, with emphasis on modeling; “Ports”14: 30%; “Maritime logistics”: 18%; “Environment”:15 9%; “Maritime Geography”: 4% and “Maritime Education/Training”: 2% (=100%). “Maritime logistics-ML emerged as a 3rd branch of maritime economics judged by the number of papers published; some [15] argue wrongly that ML is a discipline.
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