Marine Litter Stormy Wash-Outs: Developing the Neural Network to Predict Them

Sergei Fetisov,Irina Chubarenko

doi:10.3390/pollutants1030013

Abstract

Observations show that after stormy events, anthropogenic litter is washed ashore for short periods of time, providing the opportunity to collect and remove it from the environment. However, water dynamics in sea coastal zones during and after storms are very complicated, and the transport properties of litter items are very diverse; thus, predicting litter wash-outs using classical numerical models is challenging. We analyze meteorological and hydrophysical conditions in the Baltic Sea coastal zone to further use the obtained data as a training sequence for an artificial neural network (ANN). Analysis of the physical processes behind large litter wash-outs links open-source meteorological (wind speed and direction) and hydrodynamic reanalysis (surface wave parameters) data to the time and location of these wash-outs. A detailed analysis of 25 cases of wash-outs observed at the shore of the Sambian Peninsula was performed. The importance of the duration of the storm and its subsiding phase was revealed. An ANN structure is proposed for forecasting marine debris wash-outs as the first step in the creation of a neural network-based tool for managers and beach cleaners, helping to plan effective measures to remove plastics and other anthropogenic contaminants from the marine environment.

Highlights

The problem of beach contamination by anthropogenic marine debris is observable around the world [1]
The goals of this work are as follows: (i) to analyze the development of a number of meteorological and hydrophysical conditions preceding the massive wash-outs of marine debris on the shore of the Sambian Peninsula; (ii) to determine recurring features and most influential physical parameters of general wind and wave patterns; (iii) to determine the required time period for analysis, which will be used as an input parameter of the artificial neural network (ANN)
In samples taken on the northern coast of the Sambian Peninsula, the average concentration of plastic particles (>5 mm) was from 8 to 14 pieces/m2, and the maximum concentration was more than 100 particles items/m2 [21]

Summary

Introduction

The problem of beach contamination by anthropogenic marine debris is observable around the world [1]. More than eight million tons of plastics are dumped into the oceans every year, of which about two million tons of plastic comes from rivers [2,3]. Contamination of this sort takes a long time to decompose in environmental conditions, and it has an extremely negative effect on living organisms and humans [4]. A large amount of anthropogenic litter accumulates in marine coastal waters [8]. Large wash-outs are associated with stormy events [12]

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Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion