Mapping urban land surface temperature using remote sensing techniques and artificial neural network modelling

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe objective of the present study is to monitor and predict the changes in land surface temperature (LST) in the North of Jordan during the Period 2000 to 2016. Due to political instability in the nearby countries Syria and Iraq, Jordan has witnessed increased influxes of refugees, starting from the year 2003, which has been led to the urban expansion in the area that reflected on the climatic conditions and affected the LST values. Satellite images were used for providing LST, the acquired images represented two seasons of each year, namely summer and winter. Simulation and prediction of LST values for the next 10 years were carried out using nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN) model. The inputs to the model consist of meteorological data collected from eight stations in the study area, population, and land use and land cover (LULC). In fact, LULC was expressed in terms of normalized difference building index (NDBI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that were obtained from satellite images. The model showed a high correlation between these parameters and the values of simulated LST, where the correlation coefficient for the training set, validation set, testing set and for the entire data ranged from 0.91 to 0.92. Based on the predicted LST values, LST maps for the next 10 years were developed and compared with the present actual LST maps for the year 2016. The comparison has shown an average increase of 1.1 °C in the average LST values, which is considered a significant increase compared with previous studies.