Mapping trade opportunities in Central and South Asia: an exploration through trade indices and metrics

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to explore the possibilities for regional (intra and inter) trade between Central Asia and South Asia (CASA) by examining several frameworks that impact the economic integration of these regions. Design/methodology/approach The study uses five indices, specifically the export diversification index, export survival rates, export sophistication, revealed comparative advantage and intra-industry trade index in South and Central Asia, from 2005 to 2021. Findings The findings show a twofold increase in the potential trade value between the two regions compared to the actual level. The intra-regional trade in Central Asia accounts for less than 5% of trade with all countries, whereas the intra-regional trade in South Asia accounts for 1.5%, and the inter-regional trade accounts for between 0.2 and 4% of total trade to all destinations. The intensity of trade measurements shows that inter-regional trade flows are modest because they make up a relatively small percentage of the entire trade volume, which includes all destinations, ranging from 0.2 to 4 %. Research limitations/implications These findings have a significant impact on the successful implementation of trading-related measures, initiatives and institutional mechanisms for encouraging improved trade between and within both regions. Practical implications Export diversification initiatives aim to provide favourable outcomes for all parties involved, focusing on expanding the range of goods and services exchanged. CASA countries with higher diversification have shown more favourable outcomes than those relying on a restricted range of products. The authors expect policies promoting a broader array of exports to boost market shares, while maintaining a narrow focus may hinder new export prospects. In addition, regional value chains and policy initiatives promoting trade and investment could lead to increased value additions to exports, technological transfers and job creation. Social implications The study emphasises the significance of trade-related policies, programmes and institutional mechanisms in promoting trade between CASA. It emphasises the need for policies that support investment and trade, adopt new requirements of the Agreement on Trade Facilitation and promote diversity and latency. Originality/value Based on economic analysis, the study offers practical insights and strategies for businesses in the CASA regions. It also provides analytical tools for academics and decision makers, as well as policy and programme recommendations for government agencies, development partners, researchers and individuals interested in trade dynamics in these regions.