Mapping the relative risk of surface water acidification based on cumulative acid deposition over the past 25 years in Japan

Abstract

Sensitivity maps of atmospheric acid deposition in Japan have not been updated in 20 years. Here, we propose new relative risk maps of surface water acidification in forests based on a weighted overlay of cumulative potential acid deposition (CPAD) simulated for a 25-year period (1981–2005), including the sensitivities of soil and bedrock to acidification. We assumed that relative acidification risk is high in areas that exhibit high sensitivities of soil and bedrock to acid and have received a large amount of cumulative acid deposition over the past several decades. We aggregated fine soil and bedrock maps into a 20-km mesh for overlay onto an 80-km mesh map of CPAD by considering their spatial structures in Japan. Allocation of the weights among CPAD and soil and bedrock sensitivities was performed based on observational trends in river pH over the past 30 years. The resulting risk map for surface water acidification showed that large areas of western Japan, as well as smaller areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, and Kyushu, are at high risk of surface water acidification. Seventy-seven percent of all rivers for which a declining trend in pH was observed from 2001 to 2009 were also high-risk areas. Acid deposition might be one factor controlling surface water acidification in areas with high bedrock sensitivity, in addition to high CPAD and soil sensitivity, although the risk of soil acidification remains unclear.