Abstract
Originating from Asia, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a significant pest of horticultural/agricultural crops, grapes, woody ornamental and herbaceous plants, and is also a nuisance to people, due to its overwintering behavior in human habitation. The global range of this pest is steadily increasing and previous predictions of environmental suitability have shown New Zealand to be highly suitable. Due to the economic value of horticultural and agricultural industries to the New Zealand economy, it is vital to understand the range of potential risk within the country. Global and New Zealand potential suitability for BMSB was modeled using three algorithms and the resulting predictions ensembled to predict the potential range under current climatic conditions and under trajectories of future low (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emissions for both 2050 and 2070. Under current conditions, models showed a high global suitability within latitudes 25°–50° N, southern South America, southeast and southwest regions of Australia and large areas of New Zealand. Modeling the effect of climate change on BMSB range in New Zealand resulted in a southerly range shift over time, particularly with high emissions trajectory. Currently, BMSB is not established in New Zealand and it is vital that this remains the case.
Highlights
New Zealand, being an island nation heavily reliant on primary industry productivity, is vulnerable to the impact of invasive species
This study aims to determine the potential global and New Zealand distribution of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) under current climatic conditions and future environmental suitability under the influence of two climate change scenarios; low
Modeling techniques have frequently been used to determine the spread of invasive insects under current environmental conditions [59,60] and under the influence of climate change [32,61,62]
Summary
New Zealand, being an island nation heavily reliant on primary industry productivity, is vulnerable to the impact of invasive species. New Zealand’s Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) is on high alert to prevent the entry of Halyomorpha halys or brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) from entering the country [1]. This arthropod, of approximately 17 mm in length [2], is a native of Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan [3] and is known as a horticultural pest and nuisance to humans in an increasing number of locations around the world. Older records are available for presence of this arthropod in Lichtenstein in 2004 [6], the BMSB was first officially reported in 2008 from collections in Europe in the Zürich region of Switzerland in 2007 [7]. Detection of BMSB was recorded in the Dunedin area, New Zealand, in 2010, [12] while reported interceptions by MPI have shown steady increases in the 2014 to 2016 period [13]
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