Abstract
Abstract Host population density as a risk factor for infectious disease transmission is an established concept in both host-parasite ecology and epidemiological disease modeling. A ‘population-at-risk’ value is a necessary denominator in epidemiological analyses to estimate absolute risk. However, local colony density values have been missing from published literature for Ontario, Canada, and crude density measures for the province do not consider the highly heterogeneous concentration of colonies in Southern Ontario. With geostatistical kriging methods, a continuous colony density map was developed from regionally aggregated apiary registration data. This study highlights the potential implications of colony population density on a macro scale and illustrates methodologies available to produce continuous density estimates over a given region with Ontario as an example. The estimation and mapping of continuous colony density values across the population provides future work with a source of data to further investigate potential associations of colony density and disease and helps to inform inspection and surveillance efforts. An interactive regional colony density map was also developed as a knowledge mobilization tool to increase the accessibility of these findings to members of the beekeeping community. The results of this study are an important practical step in advancing epidemiological research on managed honey bees and may lead to further development of strategies to improve the health of honey bees.
Highlights
The number of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies in Canada has more than doubled in the past century (Statistics Canada, 2018; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2019)
The province occupies a landmass of over one million square kilometers, but the majority of this land is inhospitable to humans, resulting in approximately 94% of the human population occupying only around 14% of the provincial landmass (Statistics Canada, 2021)
Within R (R Core Team, 2019), the boundary file was projected using the Lambert Equal Area (LEA) projection, because of the ability to retain the integrity of a square kilometer unit over a large geographical body, which is important for population density mapping
Summary
The number of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies in Canada has more than doubled in the past century (Statistics Canada, 2018; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2019). In the province of Ontario alone, approximately 100,000 colonies are managed by, on average, about 2,900 beekeepers (OMAFRA, 2019; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2019). The province occupies a landmass of over one million square kilometers, but the majority of this land is inhospitable to humans, resulting in approximately 94% of the human population occupying only around 14% of the provincial landmass (Statistics Canada, 2021). Managed honey bees exist in correlation with human populations and the 100,000 colonies in Ontario would be expected to occupy a small fraction of the provincial landmass. Population density distribution metrics of honey bee colonies are not as well documented as that of humans.
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