Mapping the Famine

Abstract

An important feature of agricultural economies with incomplete markets is that short-run adjustments to adverse production shocks are often impeded by binding constraints that may be relaxed only over the long run (Swinton 1988; de Janvry et al. 1991; Besley and Case 1993; Foster and Rosenzweig 1995; Conley and Udry 2010). In particular, uncertainty, as well as capital and land constraints, can result in demographic change constituting the primary short-run margin of adjustment (Rosenzweig and Stark 1989; Townsend 1994; Udry 1994; Dercon 1996; Fafchamps et al. 1998; Munshi 2004). Research has also demonstrated that production shocks in the form of adverse environmental change are especially harmful to developing economies and their poorest populations, with the threat likely to intensify (Jayachandran 2006; World Bank 2009; Dell et al. 2012). Thus, while recent studies have analyzed economic adaptation to environmental change in more developed settings, it is increasingly important to understand such adjustment in developing contexts (Deschenes and Greenstone 2007; Hornbeck 2012). Historical episodes provide a unique opportunity to analyze both short- and (very) long-run adaptation to environmental shocks than is possible in more contemporary studies (Reardon et al. 1992; Gine and Klonner 2005; Kazianga and Udry 2006; Duflo et al. 2008). Moreover, as the distribution of adjustment to a large shock along different economic margins may vary considerably depending on the relevant time horizon, it is critical to examine such responses with a long historical perspective (Lange et al. 2009).