Mapping the evolution patterns of urbanization, ecosystem service supply–demand, and human well-being: A tree-like landscape perspective

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) are closely related to human well-being (HWB). Recently, urbanization has increased worldwide, which has had a significant impact on the ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) and HWB. However, previous studies have primarily focused on the spatiotemporal pattern of ESSD and HWB, while ignoring their evolutionary pathways, especially in karst areas. We aimed to quantify the optimal trade-offs of ESSD under the constraints of urbanization and the nonlinear relationship between ESSD and HWB, further constructing a tree-like framework to explore the evolutionary pathways of urbanization, ESSD, and HWB from a landscape evolution perspective. We used the production possibility frontier (PPF) to quantify the optimal trade-offs of three ESSDs, the generalized additive model (GAM) to fit the nonlinear relationship between ESSD and HWB, and the geographic evolution tree model (Geotree) to construct the tree-like structure of urbanization levels, comprehensive ecosystem service supply–demand (CESD), and HWB. There is a trade-off between the deficit of carbon storage services (CS) and water yield services (WY), but a synergy between the deficit of WY and the surplus of FS. Further, there is a synergy between the deficit of CSs and the surplus of food supply services (FS). The response of HWB to the ESSD of CS is not obvious, but the response to the ESSD of WY and FS is obvious. Based on the Geotree model, the urbanization, CESD, and HWB present strong coupling relationships, which show the characteristics of clustering, stratified heterogeneity, and evolution.