Mapping the environmental suitability of etiological agent and tick vectors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

Abstract

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is one of the most important public health threats in many regions across Africa, Europe, and Asia. This study used ecological niche modeling analyses to map the environmental suitability of both CCHF virus (CCHFV), and its tick vectors (Amblyomma variegatum, Dermacentor marginatus, Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma truncatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi) in the Old World countries. The CCHFV was anticipated to occur with high environmental suitability across southern and central Europe, northwestern Africa, central Asia, and western Mediterranean region. Ecological niche models of tick vectors anticipated diverse patterns based on the tick species in question; D. marginatus and H. marginatum showed high environmental suitability in southern and central Europe, and North Africa. The remaining vector species were anticipated to occur in Africa. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the niche similarities between CCHFV and diverse tick vectors and could not reject the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all vector-virus combinations (P > 0.05) except the combinations of CCHFV with A. variegatum, R. evertsi evertsi and R. appendiculatus (P < 0.05).