Mapping the effects of urban heat island, housing, and age on excess heat-related mortality in London

Abstract

With the predicted increase in heatwave frequency in the UK due to climate change, there has been an increasing research focus on mortality during hot weather. This paper examines the risk of mortality in London during hot weather by combining data on population age and distribution, Urban Heat Island (UHI), and dwelling propensity to overheat due to geometry and fabric characteristics derived using building physics in order to calculate the spatial variation in heat-related mortality risk across London. Spatial variation of heat-related mortality was found to reflect background mortality rates due to population age, while dwelling characteristics were found to cause a larger variation in temperature exposure (and therefore risk) than UHI. The highest levels of excess mortality were found in areas with larger elderly populations, towards the outskirts of the Greater London Authority (GLA).