Mapping the effect of climate change on community livelihood vulnerability in the riparian region of Gangatic Plain, India

Abstract

Indian Gangatic Plain is food basket of the country and vulnerable to variety of factors. The western region of the Gangatic plain is worst affected due to river bank erosion, frequent floods and climate change. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the livelihood vulnerability of the communities of riparian region of Manikchak block of the Gangatic plain by classifying the region into three zones based on the distance from the river. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) was applied by selecting suitable social and biophysical indicators through inductive and deductive approaches. The data for the estimation of LVI was collected by randomly selecting a total of 240 households from the villages of the three zones. The spatial modeling of LVI was achieved by applying spatial cluster and outlier analysis using local Moran’s I Index and by hotspot analysis using Getis-Org-G* statistics. Differential vulnerabilities across the three zones was observed with nearer to river zone was highly vulnerable. The villages nearer to river was more vulnerable due to greater exposure to river bank erosion and flood; higher sensitivity to insufficient access to basic amenities and poor adaptive capacity due to low socio-economic status and poor livelihood security. Moreover, the spatial pattern of hotspot was also identified as high vulnerable, high-low vulnerable and low vulnerable areas in the region. The results signified that the social and biophysical parameters were the main contributors for the differential vulnerabilities in the region. Therefore, the study concludes that the vulnerability of the communities varies with respect to their location to river and the differential approaches based on the social attributes of the communities and spatial characteristics of the location may be useful for addressing the livelihood vulnerability of the communities residing along the bank of the river.