Mapping the carbon mitigation potential of photovoltaic development in the Gobi and desert regions of China

Abstract

The sunny, sparsely populated sand, gravel, and other desert regions known as the Gobi and desert regions (GDRs) have significant advantages and enormous potential in the development of solar resources. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and multi-source datasets, this study used the random forest algorithm to identify the current distribution of GDRs in China, analyzed the carbon mitigation potential (CMP), and further explored the layout optimization strategies for the future development of China's GDRs photovoltaic (PV) industry. Research has found that only 2.25 % of the land in GDRs of the five provincial-level administrative units involved in GDRs was used for PV development, and there was still a large amount of land suitable for PV development; Regional solar energy resources were crucial for PV development, but policy support and terrain characteristics could not be underestimated; When the installed area of GDRs, which is most suitable for installing PV facilities, reaches 50 %, it can meet the electricity consumption of the entire Chinese society in 2022. At this time, the CMP was about 5.39 × 1012 kg CO2. The research results can provide decision-making basis for China's PV industry, and the research framework is also applicable to other similar regions.