Mapping State Participation in Military AI Governance Discussions

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Abstract Ongoing advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy in military affairs, particularly so-called Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), have already provoked intense debates in the international arena. Can existing conventions be adapted to govern current advances in AI and LAWS, and can states achieve consensus on the core issues at stake in these complex debates? To date, mechanisms for arms control and governance have struggled to adapt to changing technological conditions, and metrics to gauge progress have remained inadequate. Drawing on original data, this chapter attempts to quantify and characterize the current landscape of discussions on LAWS under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) as an initial indicator of progress towards the governance of AI in military affairs. We evaluate a battery of factors—military capabilities, economic interests, diplomatic alignment, and regime type—to understand why some states appear more eager than others to engage. We find that the determinants of participation are, in fact, nuanced, such that no single school of thought can account for the variation. In a world where anxieties about an AI arms race have captured headlines, and fears of killer robots have provoked mobilization by civil society stakeholders, these issues are of immense importance to future policy and diplomacy. Scholars and policymakers should appreciate why a range of governments are working to shape the outcome of discussions, even if for varied reasons.