Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Arnold R Salvacion

doi:10.1515/quageo-2017-0008

Arnold R Salvacion

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2017-0008

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Abstract

AbstractThis study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

Highlights

Corn is considered the second most important crop and principal source of income for about 24 million families in the Philippines (Fig. 1)
These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location
Most part of the country is projected to experience increase rainfall and temperatures, which results in changes in climatic suitability of corn in some parts of the country

Summary

Introduction

Corn is considered the second most important crop and principal source of income for about 24 million families in the Philippines (Fig. 1) (delos Santos et al 2007, Gerpacio 2004, Lansigan et al 2007). According to Gerpacio et al (2004) and delos Santos et al (2007), corn production losses in the country is mainly due to flood and drought. Changes in the characteristic and pattern of weather due to climate change are expected to impact agricultural production (Antón et al 2013, Ewert et al 2015, Holzkämper et al 2015, Kim et al 2016, Ko et al 2014, Ko, Ahuja 2014). Changes on existing climate in an area can alter crop suitability in the region (Bonfante et al 2015, Chemura et al 2015, Jayathilaka et al 2012, Lane, Jarvis 2007, Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015, Ramirez-Cabral et al 2016, Wang et al 2015, Zabel et al 2014)

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