Mapping soil electric conductivity using Bayesian kriging: A case study from Qasur, Pakistan

Abstract

Quality of soil data is vital to formulate agricultural policies at different scales. Current agricultural applications in Pakistan depend however, on average values of soil estimates over larger areas. In this work, model-based ordinary kriging (OK) and Bayesian kriging (BK) to interpolate soil data is used. The aim is to compare the two different methods for the accuracy of soil data prediction. For this soils were sampled for Electrical Conductivity (EC, dSm–1) at 759 different locations in the rural agricultural areas of Qasur Tehsil, Pakistan. Cross validation was used to compare the performance of OK and BK. Our results show strong skewness and spatial dependency of soil EC values in heterogeneous regions. Box-Cox transformation successfully reduced the level of skewness in the soil EC data (from 14.1 to 0.11). Contrary to OK, under-estimation of soil EC values was not evident in the BK interpolation. Mean square prediction error for BK (1.45) was significantly reduced as compared to that for OK (6.1). Considering these findings, BK is a better model to explain the sub-regional soil EC variability and estimating strategies for sustainable agricultural planning in Pakistan.