Abstract
BackgroundQinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed.MethodsBased on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously.ResultsWe used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague.ConclusionsThis study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
Highlights
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host
Data collection and pre-processing All plague surveillance data used in this study were derived from the plague surveillance database of ‘Chinese Plague Prevention and Control Management Information System,’ a national surveillance network for plague maintained by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
We applied field surveillance data with GIS/RS-based ecological niche modeling approach to increase our understanding of the suitable habitat of enzootic plague and anticipate the distribution of the natural foci in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Summary
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through. In mainland China, natural plague foci of plague were divided into 12 types according to their primary reservoirs, principal vectors, landscapes and genotypes of Y. pestis [4], which were distributed in 19 of total 31 provinces and autonomous regions., The marmots (Marmota himalayana) foci in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was most active and widespread. In 2010, cases with bubonic plague and pneumonic plague were reported in Gansu Province and Tibet Autonomous Region
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