Mapping relative viability prospects for pastoralism in Australia

Abstract

This paper presents, develops and applies an exploratory linear model of an expert's judgments of medium-term prospects for pastoral enterprises in Australia's rangelands. Viability prospects are first modelled for a simple set of rangeland locations in terms of management factors (costs, returns, stock numbers). To allow extrapolation to a comprehensive set of rangeland locations, each management factor is further modelled in terms of readily available bio-physical attributes of locations (soils, vegetation, climate, accessibility). Whilst the model cannot be tested in any strict sense, it gives results in conformity with current pastoral practice. Its major appeal is that it allows application of a single evaluation procedure to the diversity of Australia's extensive rangelands. Possibilities for the further development and use of such models in land use policy analysis are noted.