Abstract

The Flemish region in Belgium is characterised by a high and ever-growing proportion of settlement area. Moreover, the historical growth pattern has resulted in fragmented urban development causing societal and environmental problems such as strong competition for space by multiple sectors and traffic congestion. The Flemish government has incorporated in its Spatial Policy Plan the goal to reduce land take to zero by 2040 and to guide future urban development according to the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) planning model. One of the principles of the plan is to concentrate urban development (to house the growing population and employment) at locations with good access to public transport and public and private services. Moreover, accessibility should be reached by means of active modes of transportation (e.g. walking, cycling). This paper offers a method to assist spatial planners that operate at a regional scale level by operationalizing these TOD-principles through mapping the urban development potential area-wide at high resolution. The proposed method builds upon the ‘node-place model’ put forward by Bertolini (1999). The method is applied to assess the urban development potential of locations in Flanders at a full-scale (i.e. for every location in Flanders, not only in areas around train stations). The method can be used to support policy makers operating at various levels (regional – local) to identify and prioritise locations that qualify for expansion, densification or reduction of the built-up area.

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