Mapping Potential Regions of Human Interaction with Acuminate Horseshoe Bats (Rhinolophus acuminatus) in Thailand

Abstract

Bats are reservoirs for various pathogens, including SARS-like coronaviruses (CoVs). Understanding the distribution of bat species is crucial to identifying areas where viral spillover from bats to other animals or humans might occur. In this study, we performed species distribution modeling to predict suitable habitats within Thailand under current and predicted future climate conditions for Rhinolophus acuminatus, a bat species that has been found to host SARS-CoV-2-related viruses. Our assessment of current conditions revealed that temperature seasonality had the greatest impact on habitat suitability and that suitable habitats were primarily restricted to the southern and eastern regions of Thailand. Over time, the projections indicate a diminishing availability of suitable habitats, suggesting a potential trend toward migration into neighboring areas. We next combined modeled bat distribution with urbanization data to estimate regions in Thailand where bat–human interactions might occur. The resulting map highlighted regions of heightened interaction risk, encompassing approximately 46,053.94 km2 across 58 provinces and representing approximately 9.24% of Thailand’s total area. These risk concentrations are prominently situated in the southern, central, and eastern Thai regions, with extensions into neighboring border areas. Our findings will significantly aid future risk surveillance efforts and enhance the effectiveness of monitoring and managing emerging diseases within the country and in contiguous regions.