Abstract
We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.
Highlights
Malaria causes an estimated 584,000 deaths a year, mostly due to Plasmodium falciparum and mostly in sub-Saharan Africa (World Health Organization 2014)
Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas
This is contrasted with an illustration of the same maps generated for a previous model (Parham and Michael 2010; Fig. S1) (Supplementary Data are available at www.liebertonline/ vbz/)
Summary
Malaria causes an estimated 584,000 deaths a year, mostly due to Plasmodium falciparum and mostly in sub-Saharan Africa (World Health Organization 2014). This substantial health burden is anticipated to increase with changing climate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007a, Shuman 2010, Parham et al 2015 and references therein). Many factors impact malaria burden, including climate, land use, socioeconomic conditions, and intervention efforts ( Johnson et al 2014). Climate-induced shifts in distribution will impact the efficacy of intervention and vector control efforts (Siraj et al 2014).
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