Mapping out the scenarios of ocean energy scale-up based on the development of offshore wind

Abstract

Background: Our oceans remain one of the last untapped source of renewable energy. The predictability and reliability of ocean energy technologies could con- tribute significantly to the global energy transition. By 2022, ocean energy, and in particular wave and tidal energy have reached a pre-commercial phase in their development. Methods: This study investigates the potential progression of the wave and tidal energy sector in the next three decades based on the offshore wind sector in the past three decades. Two different models were developed from the yearly capacity increase of offshore wind in Europe and applied to the wave and tidal energy sector. Results: According to both models, the 40 GW 2050 target for ocean energy set by the European Commission in 2020 could be reached if European coastal countries adopt supportive policies for both technologies immediately. A sensitivity analysis shows further that a small delay right now will have tremendous negative impacts to fulfill the EU goals and the contribution of ocean energy to the energy transition. Conclusions: In conclusion, the ocean energy sector shows a strong growth potential and is capable of supporting the European and global climate targets substantially by 2050. Learnings from the offshore wind sector can help scope and support the growth of ocean energy technologies.