Mapping of future technology themes in sustainable energy

Abstract

PurposeTo anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.Design/methodology/approachDelphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.FindingsBy this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.Research limitations/implicationsIt would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.Originality/valueThe integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.