Abstract
Bilharzia is vector-borne disease carried by a parasite that is hosted by fresh water snails. The distribution of the disease is concurrent with the existence of the freshwater snails and is dependent on certain suitable environmental conditions. It is difficult to identify the specific habitats of the snails as they are often inaccessible on the ground, the snails also migrate by means of flowing water, making it difficult to keep a track of the freshwater snails’ habitat. This paper aimed at using GIS, Remote Sensing and Species Distribution Modelling techniques to model the suitable habitats for the freshwater snails and to prove that the snails migrate when there are sudden changes in water levels whilst showing the population at risk of bilharzia. The SDM used is the Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) for its ability to make right predictions even with small presence sites. The AUC value of the model was 0.951. The research results showed that the environmental variables; brightness Index, elevation, temperatures were negatively correlated with the snails’ presence while the wetness index, MSAVI, greenness index and soil pH were positively correlated. The snails are observed to favor clay soils of the montmorillonite type and the crop-lands land cover. Areas consistently submerged by water especially after flooding are shown to be the most suitable areas where snails migrate by means of river or canal water. The research proves that Mwea is not the source habitat of the freshwater snails. The neighboring sub-counties within Kirinyaga County should be investigated using such models as a likely source-habitat of the freshwater snails. Destroying the source habitats will lead to complete eradication of the freshwater snails within Mwea.
Highlights
Bilharzia as a neglected tropical disease is second to malaria in its adverse effect on public health and socioeconomics impact in the tropics and sub-tropics of the developing countries (Manyangadze et al, 2016).It has a risk of infecting 6 million people in Kenya 70% being between 5 - 14 years
This paper aimed at using GIS, Remote Sensing and Species Distribution Modelling techniques to model the suitable habitats for the freshwater snails and to prove that the snails migrate when there are sudden changes in water levels whilst showing the population at risk of bilharzia
The use of the Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model has proven to be an effective way of modelling the conditions on the ground suitable for the survival of the snails
Summary
Bilharzia as a neglected tropical disease is second to malaria in its adverse effect on public health and socioeconomics impact in the tropics and sub-tropics of the developing countries (Manyangadze et al, 2016). It has a risk of infecting 6 million people in Kenya 70% being between 5 - 14 years. It can cause permanent damage to vital body organs such as liver and the uterus if left untreated Two, it has no vaccine and it can be treated; it has been reported to re-occur (Mitra & Mawson, 2017)
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