Mapping of b-Value Anomalies Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand–Myanmar Border: Implications for Upcoming Earthquakes

Abstract

In order to determine the prospective areas of the forthcoming earthquake sources, the [Formula: see text]-values of the frequency-magnitude earthquake distributions were analyzed spatially and mapped along the strike-slip fault system at the Thailand–Myanmar border. In order to constrain the relationship between the variation of [Formula: see text] and the following hazardous earthquake, the completeness of earthquake catalogue was manipulated into two datasets for (i) 1980–2000 and (ii) 1980–2005 and the [Formula: see text]-values mapped. Utilizing the suitable assumption of 30 fixed earthquake events, the following [Formula: see text] earthquakes illustrate a significant relation between their epicenter and the areas showing relatively low [Formula: see text]-values. By utilizing the most recent earthquake data (1980–2015), five areas exhibiting low [Formula: see text]-values (implying prospective earthquake sources) can be identified along the strike-slip fault system. Compared with earthquake activities evaluated previously along the strike-slip fault system, the data reveal that these five areas may potentially generate earthquakes up to 7.0[Formula: see text][Formula: see text] within the coming 50 years; the recurrence of the [Formula: see text]-5.0 earthquake is about 10 years and the probabilities of the [Formula: see text]-5.0 earthquake are about 40–95%, respectively. Since these prospective hazardous seismic zones are located close to cities, population centers and hydropower dams, an effective mitigation plan should be developed.