Abstract
BackgroundThe objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique.MethodsA Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC.ResultsFor winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23.ConclusionsThe incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year.
Highlights
The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique
For year 2002, malaria incidence was found to be associated with both rainfall and temperature
Similar results were found for winter 2002 season, with temperature strongly correlated to malaria incidence
Summary
The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. The flexibility and robustness provided by Bayesian methods has led to the increase of applications on disease mapping, spatial statistics and decision-making [10]. Geographic modelling of malaria distribution is central for understanding spatial and and/or spatio-temporal patterns that may help to identify discrepancies in disease burden among different districts in Mozambique. Estimates of uncertainty obtained as model outputs are included in the map production in relation to malaria disease control strategy, as to facilitate a strategy based on geographic risk stratification. This may allow for more informed and objective decision making from disease control programme managers. While spatial analytical methods are regarded as an attractive research objective [9], they have been rarely applied in context of district geographical health analyses in Mozambique, especially as tools for enhanced planning and implementation of disease control programmes
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