Mapping integrated vulnerability of coastal agricultural livelihood to climate change in Bangladesh: Implications for spatial adaptation planning

Abstract

Understanding the spatial variation of agricultural livelihood vulnerability to climate change is crucial for developing adaptation strategies in the future, something that has only been seldom done so far in developing economies like Bangladesh. To this end, we developed an integrated vulnerability index (IVI) based on the IPCC framework for analyzing and mapping the vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. The IVI was calculated as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used 45 indicators from nationally comparable and reliable datasets to conduct the research. Besides, a socio-economic livelihood vulnerability index (SELVI) was developed on the basis of sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators and displayed in a scatter diagram in order to identify the socio-economically more vulnerable districts of coastal Bangladesh. A circumplex chart was used to disaggregate the normalized indices of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, allowing the researcher to discover the factors that cause and mitigate the vulnerability. Using the IVI information, a vulnerability map was created that revealed that Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, and Barguna districts in the exposed central coastal region were the topmost vulnerable districts, reflecting the fact that the agricultural livelihoods of 7.3 million people were highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The geographical diversity in salt intrusion, river-bank erosion, dependence ratio, crop yield, literacy, the density of physicians in the hospital, disaster-resistant houses, shelter facilities, and irrigated farming areas contributed to the diverse coastal agricultural livelihood vulnerability.