Abstract
The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a major threat to tomato Solanum lycopersicum and ranks as one of the world’s 100 most invasive pests. This is the first study of B. tabaci (Biotype B and Q) global distribution, focusing on risk levels of this invasive pest, in areas projected to be suitable for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation under climate change. This study aims to identify levels of risk of invasive B. tabaci for areas of suitability for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation for the present, 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model, HadGEM2_ES under RCP45. Our results show that 5% of areas optimal for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation are currently at high risk of B. tabaci. Among the optimal areas for S. lycopersicum, the projections for 2050 compared to the current time showed an extension of 180% in areas under high risk, and a shortening of 67 and 27% in areas under medium and low risk of B. tabaci, respectively, while projections for 2070 showed an extension of 164, and a shortening of 49 and 64% under high, medium and low risk, respectively. The basis of these projections is that predicted temperature increases could affect the pest, which has great adaptability to different climate conditions, but could also impose limitations on the growth of S. lycopersicum. These results may be used in designing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of B. tabaci for open-field tomato crops, and assist the implementation of pest management programs.
Highlights
Plant pest expansion increased in the last century, mainly due to international travel and the trading of plants around the world [1]
We modeled the risk of B. tabaci in S. lycopersicum cultivation for the present and years 2050 and 2070
While B. tabaci and S. lycopersicum occurrence has been reported for regions on all continents (Fig 1), the combination is more probable in tropical regions with high mean annual temperatures (Tables 1 and 2 and Figs 5A and 6A), including areas with wide variations of daily temperatures (Figs 5B and 6B), and a wider range in precipitation (Tables 1 and 2 and Figs 5C and 6D)
Summary
Plant pest expansion increased in the last century, mainly due to international travel and the trading of plants around the world [1]. A pest species may be distributed in different regions of the planet, introduced either by natural or anthropic dispersion. The pest species may establish and cause negative impact to local hosting ecosystem and economy. Many factors may influence expansion, such as the availability of hosts and appropriate climatic conditions [2,3,4,5].
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