Abstract

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.

Highlights

  • Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arbovirus carried by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes (Musso et al, 2014)

  • Discovered in Uganda in 1947 (Dick et al, 1952; Dick, 1953) ZIKV was only known to cause sporadic infections in humans in Africa and Asia until 2007 (Lanciotti et al, 2008), when it caused a large outbreak of symptomatic cases on Yap island in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), followed by another in French Polynesia in 2013–14 and subsequent spread across Oceania (Musso et al, 2015a)

  • All covariates included in the current study have been updated and refined since (Bhatt et al, 2013), and when combined with the most extensive occurrence database available for ZIKV, the resulting map we present here is currently the most accurate depiction of the distribution of environmental suitability for ZIKV

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Summary

Introduction

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arbovirus carried by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes (Musso et al, 2014). Discovered in Uganda in 1947 (Dick et al, 1952; Dick, 1953) ZIKV was only known to cause sporadic infections in humans in Africa and Asia until 2007 (Lanciotti et al, 2008), when it caused a large outbreak of symptomatic cases on Yap island in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), followed by another in French Polynesia in 2013–14 and subsequent spread across Oceania (Musso et al, 2015a). In the 2007 Yap island outbreak, it was estimated that approximately 20% of ZIKV cases were symptomatic.

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