Abstract
Recent studies have raised concerns about the potential reemergence of infectious diseases in Arctic regions associated with warming temperatures. Among these, particular attention has been devoted to anthrax, as a consequence of the outbreak that occurred in the Russian Yamalo-Nenets peninsula in 2016. Understanding how environmental change might influence the diffusion of this pathogen could allow informed decisions to prevent further zoonotic or epidemic episodes. To that end, the present study aims to identify and investigate the driving variables that may favor anthrax transmission within the Arctic, in order to build environmental niche maps describing the future suitability of these regions for the pathogen. To do so, we use the MaxEnt statistical learning tool informed by Arctic-specific variables, such as reindeer herd distribution and active-layer variation. Because of the relative lack of reliable georeferenced information in these regions, the resulting potential distribution maps are to be considered preliminary, but they can already provide a first assessment tool for local communities living in potential risk areas. They also indicate areas in which additional investigation is needed to improve the reliability of environmental niche modeling, hence the accuracy of risk mapping and the usefulness to Arctic communities.
Highlights
More than other regions, the Arctic environment is experiencing dramatic modifications as a consequence of climate change and human activities, and these modifications have global implications
We applied the MaxEnt statistical learning algorithm to study the spatial distribution of anthrax disease outbreaks
As a matter of fact, the distribution of reindeer herds is directly linked to the magnitude of the pool of organisms that are susceptible to the disease, a primary driver for outbreak risk, while permafrost dynamics is a typical feature of the Arctic environment, one that has been linked to the reemergence of anthrax transmission in this region [29]
Summary
The Arctic environment is experiencing dramatic modifications as a consequence of climate change and human activities, and these modifications have global implications (see e.g.the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report [1]). Information Database [12]), suggested that the outbreak may have been triggered by the exposure of herds to infected carcasses that were buried during an anthrax outbreak that had occurred in the region in the past, and that were brought to surface as a consequence of unprecedented thawing rates of the active layer. This assumption has been further supported by other studies [13, 14]. Their rational, was that sites that once were home to an outbreak could be ‘re-activated’ as a consequence of the increasing rates of active-layer and permafrost thawing, in combination with imperfect burial practices and the long-term viability of anthrax spores
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