Abstract
ContextBesides climate change vulnerability, most ecosystems are under threat from a history of improper land-use and conservation policies, yet there is little existing long-term ecological research infrastructure in Turkey. In regions with no ecological networks across large landscapes, ecoregion concept offers opportunities for characterizing the landscape under changing climate.ObjectivesAim is to develop contemporary and future quantitative ecoregions for Turkey based on climate model outputs, to identify climate change-sensitive areas of biodiversity and conservation significance, and to provide a framework for a comprehensive ecological observatory network design.MethodsUsing Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering and climate data contemporary and projected future distributions of Turkey’s ecoregions are delineated at several division levels.ResultsTurkey’s contemporary ecoregions generally show a northward shift by the end of this century and the lengthening of the growing season across the country, especially eastward and northward. The increase in growing season length, along with the shift in precipitation seasonality and increasing growing season precipitation, shape future conditions within the climate change-sensitive areas. Apart from transboundary ecological and socioeconomic significance, these potentially vulnerable ecosystems also constitute the majority of Turkey’s biodiversity hotspots.ConclusionsOur study marks the first ‘ecoregionalization’ study for Turkey based on both contemporary and future climate scenarios. For countries like Turkey, where large-scale ecological networks have not been established, using such quantitative methodology for delineation of optimal ecoclimatic regions, and for mapping environments at risk from climate change provides an invaluable perspective for conservation planning strategies, and a framework for a comprehensive ecological observatory network design.
Highlights
Forming a biological ’crossroads’ of three continents, and containing diverse combinations of physiognomy and geomorphology, Turkey represents an especially important gradient of habitats
Aim is to develop contemporary and future quantitative ecoregions for Turkey based on climate model outputs, to identify climate changesensitive areas of biodiversity and conservation significance, and to provide a framework for a comprehensive ecological observatory network design
For countries like Turkey, where large-scale ecological networks have not been established, using such quantitative methodology for delineation of optimal ecoclimatic regions, and for mapping environments at risk from climate change provides an invaluable perspective for conservation planning strategies, and a framework for a comprehensive ecological observatory network design
Summary
Forming a biological ’crossroads’ of three continents, and containing diverse combinations of physiognomy and geomorphology, Turkey represents an especially important gradient of habitats. Turkey encompasses three overlapping biodiversity hotspots: Irano-Anatolian, Mediterranean, and Caucasian, sheltering over 20,000 recorded animal species and about 11,000 native vascular plants, one-third of which are endemic (Atay et al 2009) (https://www.iucn.org/content/ biodiversity-turkey). Turkey is a major center for genetic diversity for several cultivated plants and agricultural crops. Sekercioglu et al (2011) highlighted Turkey’s biodiversity, and suggested a need. J. Kumar The Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA. Hoffman Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
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