Abstract
IntroductionAnthrax is a febrile soil-born infectious disease that can affect all warm-blooded animals including man. Outbreaks of anthrax have been reported in northern region of Ghana but no concerted effort has been made to implement risk-based surveillance systems to document outbreaks so as to implement policies to address the disease. We generated predictive maps using soil pH, temperature and rainfall as predictor variables to identify hotspot areas for the outbreaks.MethodsA 10-year secondary data records on soil pH, temperature and rainfall were used to create climate-based risk maps using ArcGIS 10.2. The monthly mean values of rainfall and temperature for ten years were calculated and anthrax related evidence based constant raster values were created as weights for the three factors. All maps were generated using the Kriging interpolation method.ResultsThere were 43 confirmed outbreaks. The deaths involved were 131 cattle, 44 sheep, 15 goats, 562 pigs with 6 human deaths and 22 developed cutaneous anthrax. We found three strata of well delineated distribution pattern indicating levels of risk due to suitability of area for anthrax spore survival. The likelihood of outbreaks occurrence and reoccurrence was higher in Strata I, Strata II and strata III respectively in descending order, due to the suitability of soil pH, temperature and rainfall for the survival and dispersal of B. anthracis spore.ConclusionThe eastern corridor of Northern region is a Hots spot area. Policy makers can develop risk based surveillance system and focus on this area to mitigate anthrax outbreaks and reoccurrence.
Highlights
Anthrax is a soil-borne infectious disease that can present as peracute, acute, subacute or chronic febrile illness of all warm blooded animals including man
We found three strata of well delineated distribution pattern indicating levels of risk due to suitability of area for anthrax spore survival
In Africa it has been reported in Cameroon [2], the Mago National Park Omo in Ethiopia [3], in Tanzania [4] and at the Selousa National Reserve in Tanzania [5], the Luangwa valley Zambia [6], the Kruger National Park in South Africa [7], Etosha National Park in Namibia [8]
Summary
Anthrax is a soil-borne infectious disease that can present as peracute, acute, subacute or chronic febrile illness of all warm blooded animals including man. Northern region has been identified as an area with frequent Anthrax outbreaks in livestock [13] which results in high mortality, production and reproduction losses. In different parts of the world, anthrax cases have been directly associated with sudden rainfall and soil nutrient availability [14] as well as temperature [15] These variables have been incorporated into GIS tools to map the suitability of the environment for B. anthracis spore survival, predict risk of outbreaks and identify hotspots in studies in regions such as Kazakhstan [16] and Saskatchewan [17].
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