Mapping and understanding the drivers of fuel poverty in emerging economies: The case of Egypt and Jordan

Abstract

This study develops an empirical model to investigate the extent of fuel poverty in two emerging economies, Egypt and Jordan. We also identify explanatory factors for fuel poverty. We use an innovative empirical framework based on a multivariate statistical approach with logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. Using this framework, we evaluate the rates of fuel poverty, the factors contributing to fuel poverty and salient fuel poverty profiles. This analysis is helpful in identifying and targeting the families that most need energy and financial assistance. The results show that the proportion of fuel-poor households is greater in Jordan (15.8%) than in Egypt (8.4%). They also highlight four different energy poverty profiles for each country. The findings show that good economic conditions, reduced inequality and access to education are critical for attenuating fuel poverty in Egypt and Jordan. The analytical framework innovatively captures fuel poverty as a new dimension in the vector of inequality trends in the Middle East and North Africa. The findings offer insights into fuel poverty in developing countries and have important policy implications. Specifically, they provide strategic information for implementing energy policies and programs to reduce inequality in the future.