Mapping and explaining civilian control in third wave democracies

Abstract

Abstract This chapter describes and explains empirical patterns of civil–military relations in 71 democracy spells in 66 third wave democracies in the period 1974 to 2010. The descriptive analysis demonstrates that overall, third wave democracies have been rather successful in ensuring civilian control over Elite Recruitment and Public Policy. In contrast, National Defense and Military Organization exhibit a generally lower degree of civilian control. The chapter also shows that post-communist countries in Eastern Europe and Eurasia started out with comparatively strong traditions of civilian control and registered only moderate changes in levels of civilian control. In contrast, Latin America is the one region in which third wave democracies, on average, had the most difficult initial conditions in terms of civilian control. Despite robust changes in the post-authoritarian period, this still is the region with the lowest average degree of civilian control. In Southern Europe, third wave democracies also inherited weak institutions of civilian control but experienced the greatest change and achieved the highest average degree of civilian control in 2010. The statistical analysis finds that civil society strength and economic development are the strongest predictors of civilian control, both in the aggregate as well as across all five individual decision-making areas. In contrast, initial conditions such as praetorian legacies and military control over the mode and outcome of the democratic transition seem less relevant for explaining civilian successes in establishing civilian control over their militaries when controlling for other factors, at least in the long run.