Manufacturing Employment Change in the American Midwest, 1977–86

Abstract

In this paper, the changing pattern of manufacturing employment within the American Midwest for 1977–86 is examined as a function of four hypothesized trends in the US space-economy: national decline of industries concentrated in the Midwest; interregional shift in the focus of production within the USA; intraregional shift in the focus of production within the Midwest; and demetropolitanization of manufacturing. The degree to which each of these processes affects manufacturing employment change is treated here entirely as an empirical question and is examined by using an extended probabilistic shift-share model along the lines suggested by Theil and Gosh, and Knudsen and Barff. Results of the analysis indicate that change in manufacturing employment within the Midwest can be accounted for by interregional shift, intraregional shift, and the national decline of industries concentrated in the region, in that order. Once these other factors are accounted for, demetropolitanization of manufacturing played only a negligible role in changes in manufacturing employment within the region during the study period.