Manpower needs for radiation oncology: A preliminary report of the ASTRO Human Resources Committee

Abstract

In summary, the ASTRO Committee on Human Resources believes that there is ample evidence for the existence of an oversupply of radiation oncologists in the United States at the present time. It believes that this oversupply has already affected the specialty in a variety of ways that are difficult to measure, for example, increased competition, conflicts between radiation oncology groups, conflicts between the private sector and academics, and increased costs, and that it is beginning to have a significant effect on the job market. This oversupply came about because of the rapid expansion in medical school enrollment in the 1970s. This led to an increased number of graduates available for enrollment into specialty residencies, one of which was radiation oncology. The actual number of radiation oncology residency positions offered has not changed significantly since 1972. However, only about half of the residency positions were filled in the early years. Since 1986, virtually all radiation oncology training positions in the United States have been filled, and this has led to a significantly greater number of radiation oncologists entering the field than have left the field through death or retirement. Preliminary data suggest that a shift to a managed care system would result in decreased demand for radiation oncology services, and that would increase the manpower problem for our specialty.