Abstract
Temperature and precipitation variations have huge environmental, socio-economic impacts. This study aims to detect the trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge from 2000-2020 in the district Ghotki. Mann Kendal test and Sen’s slope were applied by using XLSTAT in MS Excel to investigate the significance of all trends. The results showed that the annual rainfall trend was increased with the highest intensity noted in 2003; 275mm and 2010; 271 mm. The trend in the monsoon season was increased with the highest slope 0.863 by comparing with non-monsoon which showed the slope was 0.642. The annual temperature was increased an average temperature recorded in 2016; 28.5 & 2018; 28 °C. Further, the summer-autumn season’s trend has sharply increased. While the trend of Ghotki feeder discharge was slightly increased in January due to the continuous flow of water and less demand for water during the Rabi season. But in July, the highest discharge was recorded in 2010 due to heavy rainfall and flood situations over the study area. The trend in Kharif was continuously declined due to farmers started sowing sugarcane crops instead of rice and cotton which need less irrigation water. It is concluded that the performance of MK and SS tests was consistent at the verified significance level.
Highlights
Historical data of climatic factors temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and hydrological data flow rate, runoff, floods, and their trends have been acknowledged substantial attention
Trend development is an active area of interest for hydrologic parameters and climatic factors to study the climate changes scenarios and increase climate impact research. (Uzochukw, et al, 2015) stated that to forecast a loss of biodiversity, droughts, agricultural productivity, yield, floods, rainfall, humidity, and changes in temperature pattern required to be studied. (Chattopadhyay and Edwards, 2016) reported that trends of precipitation and temperature are significant to the investigation in the climate and hydrology sciences. (Klein-Tank et al, 2006) conducted a study on temperature and found that there was a negative DTR trend in south Asia. (Zahid and Rasul, 2011) showed that 1965-2009 extreme events of both highest and lowest temperature are rising throughout Pakistan
The monsoon season provides a maximum involvement to annual rainfall in Pakistan, mainly during June, July, August, and September months
Summary
Historical data of climatic factors temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and hydrological data flow rate, runoff, floods, and their trends have been acknowledged substantial attention. Trend development is an active area of interest for hydrologic parameters and climatic factors to study the climate changes scenarios and increase climate impact research. (Uzochukw, et al, 2015) stated that to forecast a loss of biodiversity, droughts, agricultural productivity, yield, floods, rainfall, humidity, and changes in temperature pattern required to be studied. Trend development for temperature, precipitation, and hydrology with time series is essential for planning and designing regional water resources management. Hydrological and hydro metrological trends development have different statistical test methods with time series. These methods are parametric and nonparametric tests (Dahmen and Hall, 1990, Chen et al, 2007). While nonparametric tests are the most common and require independent data but outliers are better tolerated
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