Abstract
Evidence suggests that mangroves protect economic activity in coastal areas. We estimate this protection from mangroves and coastal elevation globally, examining both “direct” and “indirect” exposure events (< 100 km vs. ≥ 100 km distance from a cyclone’s “eye”, respectively). We find that higher elevation (≥ 50 m) or wide mangroves (≥ 10 m seaward width) alone shelter economic activity from indirect cyclone exposure, whereas protection from direct cyclone exposure occurs only in high elevation communities with wide mangroves. Our results reveal that the majority of these “safe havens” are in upper middle-income countries but provide significant benefits to populations in lower middle-income countries.
Highlights
Recent evidence suggests that the frequency of intense tropical cyclones has been increasing, and that this trend is likely to continue with climate change[1,2]
Our findings suggest that mangroves shelter coastal economic activity for over 60 million individuals that are prone to indirect cyclone exposures in low-lying areas
Direct cyclone exposure, which is measured by storm impact within 100 km of the cyclone’s “eye”, leaves a permanent and detrimental impact on economic activity in such communities
Summary
Recent evidence suggests that the frequency of intense tropical cyclones has been increasing, and that this trend is likely to continue with climate change[1,2]. Most studies of the protective benefit of mangroves focus on loss of economic activity and property, and only a few estimate any resulting impacts on either the disutility from risk aversion or the risk of possible injury, illness or death as a result of cyclones. The role of both mangroves and coastal elevation may depend on cyclone exposure; that is, households and communities in the direct path of the storm experience more damaging storm impacts, such as rainfall, flooding extent, wind speeds, storm intensity, etc.[17,21,26]. The purpose of the following paper is to examine the influence of these spatial aspects on the protective benefits of mangroves and coastal topography in sheltering against cyclone damage to coastal property and economic activity. The combination of coastal topography and mangroves that shelter coastal economic activity from direct and indirect impacts is discussed in the context of global, regional and country-level and subnational distributions of income and levels of economic development
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