Managing water to enhance global cereal yields

Abstract

D ata show a strong world dependence on cereals for food (table 1). To meet the needs of a population reaching 9.8 billion by 2050, annual cereal production would need to increase by almost 1 × 109 Mg (1.1 × 109 tn) and meat production by over 2 × 108 Mg (2.2 × 108 tn) (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Rask and Rask (2011) stated that the dynamics of economic development in developing countries, particularly China and India, is perhaps the dominant factor affecting world food needs in the immediate future. They estimated that “a stable per capita diet at high income levels requires five to seven times more agricultural resources to produce than does a predominantly crop-based diet at low income levels” (Rask and Rask 2011.) Lal (2016a) suggested that the cereal grains needed to feed the 11 billion people projected for 2100 could be produced on 5 × 108 ha (1.2 × 109 ac). He concluded that “rather than expanding the area under cropland, agriculturally marginal and degraded soils can be set aside for nature conservancy.” He stated that to achieve this goal, the global average cereal yield of 3.27 Mg ha−1 (1.46 tn ac−1) in 2005 can be increased…