Managing visitors in nature areas: where do they leave the trails? A spatial model

Abstract

Outdoor recreation, particularly in winter, causes pressure on wildlife. While many species seem to adjust well to predictable on‐trail recreation activities, unpredictable off‐trail activities are considered harmful. Measures to minimise human disturbance require the identification of ‘conflict‐sites’ where human activities are likely to interfere with the requirements of wildlife. We used winter recreation data combined with spatial modelling to predict where recreationists move from marked trails into wildlife habitats in winter and to determine the environmental factors that trigger this off‐trail behaviour. We surveyed marked winter trails in the southern Black Forest, Germany, by foot or ski for tracks of people leaving the trail, with three types of recreationists distinguished: hikers, snowshoe users and cross‐country skiers. Using a maximum entropy approach, the probability of leaving the trail was modelled as a function of topographic, forest structure and tourism infrastructure variables. By combining the results with previously mapped habitat information of two disturbance sensitive species, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and the red deer Cervus elaphus, we identified conflict sites where mitigation measures would be most effective. All models were effective in predicting the locations where people left the trails and the three types of recreationists showed a similar pattern: the presence of closed summer trails and signposts along these trails proved to be the factors most strongly affecting the probability of leaving marked trails, followed by slope, which was negatively correlated with the probability of going off‐trail. People leaving directly into the forest, not using a summer trail, were most positively influenced by the successional stages ‘regeneration’ and ‘old forest’, whereas increasing canopy cover decreased the probability of leaving the trail. The models were extrapolated to all marked trails in the study area. Locations with a high probability of people leaving the trails were identified and intersected with the previously mapped key habitats of the two wildlife species, thereby showing the locations where leaving the trail would be linked with a high potential of human‐wildlife conflict. By indicating what triggers people to leave the trails, and identifying the critical locations, our results contribute to the determination of adequate management measures.